Aker BP projects that global oil demand will continue to grow over the coming decade, reaching around 112 million barrels per day by 2035.

In Aker BP’s base case, global oil demand is expected to increase from roughly 105 million barrels per day today to approximately 112 million barrels per day in 2035. This equates to an average annual rise of about 0.7 million barrels per day.

It is the first time Aker BP publish a long-term oil demand outlook. By publishing a quantified base case, Aker BP contributes to the strong analytical tradition in the industry, complementing peers’ scenario work by openly sharing a comprehensive longterm demand study.

The work is conducted by Chief Economist Torbjørn Kjus, which leads the company’s energy market forecasting efforts, and the Markets & Strategic Insights team led by Jostein Magerøy. Modelling is supported by demandside tools from Rystad Energy, used with permission.

Aker BPs oil demand outlook reflects powerful structural forces as population growth, rising incomes, expanding mobility, and increasing materials consumption. All contributing to resilient longterm demand across multiple regions and sectors.

Key drivers include:

• Road Transport: Demand peaks toward 2030 but remains resilient, with consumption in 2035 still higher than today. Efficiency gains and electrification temper growth but do not lead to a rapid decline.
• Petrochemicals: One of the strongest growth engines, driven by rising global demand for materials, plastics, and chemical products.
• Aviation: Increasing global travel and economic expansion support steady, long term consumption growth.
• Other sectors: Maritime, buildings, and industrial use remain broadly stable.
• Power generation: The only major segment showing structural decline as oil continues to be phased out of electricity production.

Aker BP’s long-term oil demand outlook also features a upside and downside scenario.

Under conditions of stronger economic growth and slower efficiency improvements, oil demand could expand more rapidly. This scenario is characterized by:

• Faster than expected aviation and petrochemical growththanexpected aviation and petrochemical growth
• More moderate policy tightening
• Delayed efficiency gains in transport and industry

The result: higher demand growth than the base case and a later peak.

In a world where climate policies accelerate and electrification expands quickly, demand growth would moderate sooner. This scenario includes:

• Faster adoption of electric vehicles
• Accelerated policy action and efficiency improvements
• Weaker macroeconomic conditions
• Potential geopolitical disruptions

Together, these factors point to lower growth and an earlier plateau in global oil demand.

Aker BP’s analysis covers 31 regions and 12 sectors, incorporating macroeconomic trends, technology shifts, policy developments, and refinedproduct demand patterns.

Growth Sectors

• Petrochemicals: Driven by rising global consumption of plastics and chemical feedstocks.
• Aviation: Supported by increasing travel demand and expanding global middle-class mobility.
• Road Transport: Approaches a peak but remains a major consumer through 2035.

Stable Sectors

• Maritime
• Buildings
• Industry: Slightly lower but largely steady.

Declining sector

• Power Generation: The primary source of structural decline as countries transition to other fuels.

With this publication, Aker BP aims to contribute constructively to the global energy dialogue by offering a consistent, transparent, and datadriven perspective on how oil demand may evolve toward 2035.

Read more and download the report here.

Last week, we were pleased to welcome students from the 2nd and 3rd year geoscience classes at Oslo Handelsgym VGS. The students had a unique opportunity to see how geoscience is applied in practice outside the classroom and how their knowledge is highly relevant in our industry.

One of the highlights was the insight into an ongoing drilling operation, where the students were able to follow the activity live and learn more about geosteering and what actually happens when we collect subsurface data. In addition, they met several of our subject specialists who shared insights from their areas.

From geology in Oslo to field development in the North Sea

Mathias Dahl Venberget is a geophysicist and opened the visit with an introduction to the company, the industry and how different disciplines work together.

Geologist Anders Torp gave an introduction to the Solveig field and explained how geoscience plays a central role throughout the field development process, from early assessments to production. Solveig is a subsea tie-back to the Edvard Grieg installation in the North Sea. The students also had the opportunity to see real oil from the exploration well that discovered the Solveig field in 2013.

Jon Halvard Pedersen analyses petroleum systems and took the students back in time, explaining how traces of oil can be detected in the Oslo area, based on the geology and the same principles used in today’s exploration and field understanding.

Practical learning that creates motivation

Steinar Halvdan Hansen Møkkelgjerd is the teacher for the geoscience classes at Oslo Handelsgym. He greatly appreciated giving the students an insight into how the subject is used in practice.

– For the students, it is very useful to be able to see what can be done with the subject in working life. And that it is not just theory on paper, but something we actually use for something meaningful. The hope is that more students will consider an education in the sciences as more relevant, and based on the conversations I have had with students today, I think we may be able to encourage more in a scientific direction, says Møkkelgjerd.

Important to meet young people

For Aker BP, such visits are both important and inspiring. They provide us with the opportunity to show how we work and how theory from school is actually turned into practical decisions in the field. It is also rewarding to meet engaged young people who are curious about how the industry works. We believe that showing relevance early is one of the keys to creating interest and perhaps motivating some to choose a geoscience direction later.

Aker BP has recently carried out an important pilot test of new well technology at the Alvheim field. HIPlog makes it possible to measure production down in the well without stopping production, and has been tested offshore for the first time.

This is the first time the technology has been installed offshore, and the initial results provide valuable insight.

“This project is first and foremost about gaining better insight into what is actually happening down in the well. With HIPlog, we obtain measurements that have previously been difficult or impossible to collect, especially in multilateral wells,” says Morten Hausken, Advanced Reservoir Engineer at Alvheim.

What is HIPlog?

HIPlog is a wireless solution for measuring how oil and gas flow in different parts of a well.

In short, the technology works as follows:

• Small heat sources are permanently installed in the well
• The sources send controlled heat signals into the flow
• Existing temperature sensors register the signals
• The data are used to calculate the production contribution from each branch and zone

Everything happens without cables, without interfering with production, and without additional well operations.

“The fact that we can obtain detailed production information without disrupting operations is ‘the very core of what HIPlog is developed for’,” says Tore Ottesen, Chief Executive Officer at Wellstarter, which delivers the service.

Why is this important?

In modern wells, and especially in multilateral wells, it is often challenging to gain an overview of how production is actually distributed.

HIPlog helps answer questions such as:

• Which branches produce the most
• How production changes over time
• If certain zones contribute less than expected

This insight can be used for:

• improved well management
• more targeted measures at the right time
• increased recovery over the well’s lifetime

“This is a good example of how we work with new technology at Aker BP. It is the result of several years of systematic technology development and qualification,” says Yngve Johansen, Subsurface R&D Manager.

The pilot test at Alvheim

The pilot has been carried out in the Frosk Attic 24/9-M-7 well, which has three branches. In total, nine HIPlog stations are installed, three in each branch.

The first measurement campaign was conducted in November. The analyses show:

• clear and measurable signals from the technology
• production contributions from all three branches
• good measurement quality in two of the branches
• greater uncertainty in one branch, related to well geometry and low rates

“The pilot has provided us with good signals, but also important learning points. Among other things, we see how sensitive the setup is to low rates and distance between measurement points. This is knowledge we take forward,” says Hausken.

More data on the way

This is just the first step. The HIPlog installation is planned to be used over several years, with repeated measurements that will provide a better basis for comparison and clearer trends.

The next measurement round starts at the beginning of January and will contribute to:

• better understanding of the well’s development
• more reliable assessments of production contribution
• higher quality of analyses over time

“It is important to remember that this is early in the well’s life. As we obtain more measurements over time, the data foundation will continuously improve,” says Hausken.

A collaboration built over time

The project is based on several years of thorough preparatory work. The Edvard Grieg team and the JIP collaboration carried out much of the early technology work before the pilot at Alvheim. Aker BP has continued this work through qualification and practical implementation, with a clear focus on reducing risk for the well.

“For us, it has been crucial to test new technology in a controlled way, with a clear focus on well integrity and operational risk. The pilot at Alvheim shows that this is feasible in practice,” says Johansen.

“To be able to develop and test new technology, we are completely dependent on clear sponsors and support from field management. In this project, the support from Anne Skjærstein as sponsor from PE Excellence, the early development work Grethe Schei took part in at the ring source, and not least the anchoring with Alvheim AMT, have all been decisive. When leaders understand technology risk and at the same time dare to pilot new technology, this is how we make it happen in practice.”

The way forward

The pilot demonstrates that HIPlog functions as intended and provides real value. At the same time, this is new technology, and the experiences from Alvheim are expected to be important for further use, both at this field and in future wells.

“This is an important milestone for HIPlog. The fact that the technology is now installed offshore and performs as expected is the result of close collaboration and thorough preparation,” says Ottesen.

More information and updates are expected when the next measurement round has been fully analysed.

On Thursday 18 December, Aker BP conducted a successful pilot test with partner Effee. Here, digital, robotic structural welding was tested in confined areas. The new technology makes it possible to monitor the welding process in real time, which reduces the risk of errors and provides better control over quality.

The solution offers several important benefits: increased safety, higher quality, faster execution and lower costs. At the same time, it facilitates smarter and more needs-based maintenance going forward.

“The test was successful because we have worked purposefully and closely together across disciplines and departments. The result marks an important step in the digitalisation of welding processes offshore,” says project manager at Aker BP, Aslak Næss.

The collaboration with Effee started on Alvheim, where Roy Andre Erland took the initiative to use Effee’s solution for robotic welding of thin hull plates facing the sea. This quickly developed into an interdisciplinary qualification process, and new projects with strong contributions from Integrity, Future Operations, the central technology team and the modification alliance, which requested the pilot.

“In addition to the work on Alvheim, Aker BP and Effee intend to further develop a method for swivel repairs on Skarv,” says Næss.

“Now the goal is to realise even greater benefits through fully digital welding offshore, also in the modification alliance. Robotic, digital welding fits very well with our operational strategy.

Benefits of digital, robotic welding

• Fewer days without production: More efficient execution and reduced downtime through digitalisation and remote control.
• Significantly reduced POB: Welding specialists can control the process from shore, freeing up offshore capacity.
• Improved HSE: Welders can work from safe areas, and the use of inert gas in habitats further reduces exposure.
• Decentralised operating model: Offshore personnel handle rigging and preparations, while specialists control the welding process from shore.
• Simplified planning and documentation: Digitalisation provides better support for planning, execution, inspection and documentation.

“The fact that we have come so far in such a short time is a result of targeted use of R&D funds and a strong One Team collaboration between Effee, assets, functions and central technology in Aker BP,” says Næss.

Aker BP has now entered into a framework agreement with Effee for further R&D, and is in the process of establishing similar agreements for commercial assignments.

In December 2022, Aker BP and our license partners submitted one of the largest investment portfolios ever on the Norwegian continental shelf. Three years later, we are well underway: The Yggdrasil, Valhall PWP-Fenris, Skarv Satellites, and Utsira High projects are progressing according to plan.

Through these Aker BP-operated projects, we are investing in modern fields with production emissions among the lowest in the world. The Norwegian share of the projects is approximately 65 percent. Over the lifetime of the fields, they will generate 150,000 man-years in Norway, about half of this during the development phase. Hundreds of apprentices are completing their vocational training through the project portfolio, and more than 250 Norwegian suppliers are directly involved. This means thousands of purchase orders, many to Norwegian companies. At the same time, the projects create activity and secure jobs globally.

This is a gigantic One Team effort. Our progress is powered by thousands of skilled people, close collaboration with license partners, and the commitment of the best strategic partners and suppliers. We are proud of what we are achieving together and extend a big thank you to everyone involved.

Aker BP has a clear vision to establish unmanned operations for future installations, aiming for the best possible performance at the lowest possible cost. To reach this ambition, Aker BP is implementing several pioneering initiatives in the industry, including the alliance model, data sharing, and an extensive digitalisation programme. A central part of the strategy is to introduce and establish Operation Alliances with key equipment suppliers.

A clear shift in how we collaborate on operations on the Norwegian continental shelf

What began as a concept for Yggdrasil and PWP-Fenris, with performance-based contracts and digital tools, has now become six operational alliances that support the company’s entire operations strategy.

The goal is clear: improved operations through smarter collaboration. Instead of traditional service agreements, we are entering into long-term partnerships where Aker BP and leading equipment suppliers work as one team, with shared incentives and clear value drivers.

The initiative is based on data sharing, open work processes, and the development of digital solutions that provide better monitoring, more precise maintenance, and more efficient production. This also facilitates more remote operations and quicker support when needed.

Six new alliances established

As part of Operation Alliances, Aker BP has established partnerships with suppliers covering key equipment groups in our daily operations. The alliance partners are:

SLB • NOV • Framo • Everllence • ABB • SKF • CCC • Palfinger • Aragon

– These alliances become an integrated part of the operations organisation, aiming to support stable, efficient, and optimised operations across our fields, says Julie Jansen Birkeland, Operation alliances manager at Aker BP.

– The alliances strengthen our One Team approach and provide better conditions for high uptime and safe production.

A clear step forward in 2025

In 2025, the team has delivered results that make a difference in daily life out in the fields:

• Six operational alliances have been established within critical equipment groups
• A shared model for data sharing and remote support has been developed, enabling faster troubleshooting and better decision support
• A performance model is in place, where partners are rewarded for actual value creation
• The foundation for continuous improvement and technology development has been laid, strengthening our position as a leading operator on the Norwegian continental shelf

– This is a delivery that both internal teams and alliance partners can be proud of. It shows what we can achieve when we challenge old ways of working and build something new together, says Julie.

A cultural shift in practice

Operation Alliances are more than contracts and models. It is a long-term partnership that changes how Aker BP works, collaborates, and makes decisions.

– This is an important step for Aker BP. Together with our partners, we are building a more holistic and efficient way of operating the fields. We have established alliances that enable us to respond faster, work more predictably, and create greater value over time. This is the beginning of something that aims to shape how we work for many years to come, says Julie.

– A big thank you to everyone who has contributed. This is work to be proud of, and which aims to provide benefits for both operator and suppliers in the time ahead.

Tambar is a remotely operated wellhead platform connected to Ula. When an incident put the offshore crane on Tambar out of service, the operations team faced a critical challenge: several damaged parts in the drag chain and an estimated delivery time of six weeks for new components from a factory in Italy. A production shutdown was not an option, they needed a smarter solution.

The challenge was to get the crane operational again. This required, among other things, 320 spacers, 160 separators, and 25 drag chain links. A traditional order would have taken weeks, but the team decided to think differently.

The solution was that a creative process operator 3D-modeled the drag chain links offshore, while the remaining parts were modeled onshore. Using 3D printing, they produced all the components within 24 hours.

«The offshore team then spent several days repairing damage, assembling, and installing the parts,” says Mariann Laursen Scotland, who works in crane and lifting on Ula.

As a result, the crane was quickly back in operation, and Tambar avoided a production shutdown. This is a clear example of what happens when skilled professionals dare to try new technology and collaborate across sea and land.

“I am very proud of the Ula/Tambar team for taking responsibility, being curious, and finding smart solutions when it matters most. This is the result of great collaboration across sea and land. We are in late-phase operations, but we remain eager to try new technology, and this is an excellent example of that,” says Talar Arif, SVP for Ula.

Aker Digital Alliance (ADA) is a strategic collaboration between Aker BP, Aker Solutions, Cognite, and Aize. Together, we are developing next-generation digital solutions to transform how we work with operations, maintenance, and modification projects.

The goal of ADA is to accelerate the adoption of modern, data-driven work processes and set a new standard for cross-functional collaboration. Through innovative solutions for the entire value chain of operations and modifications, we aim to simplify processes and deliver tailored products that create real value.

But ADA is about more than technology. It’s about changing the way we work in practice. By combining the deep industry knowledge of Aker BP and Aker Solutions with the digital expertise of Cognite and Aize, we will develop solutions that deliver measurable impact in everyday work.

ADA originated from Project Normandie, which in 2020 set the direction for how Aker BP would become a leading E&P company of the future, with digitalization as the key to transforming the entire asset lifecycle. This laid the foundation for ADA 1.0, focusing on efficient project execution, especially for greenfield developments such as Yggdrasil.

Today, ADA 2.0 continues this vision with an expanded focus on operations and modifications. The goal is to increase production efficiency, enable new ways of working, and deliver a digital ecosystem with tools for everyone involved in daily operations.

“Through ADA, we deliver solutions that create measurable impact in operations and modifications. We accelerate digitalization and transformation, and build tools that make everyday work more productive for everyone in the field,” says Thomas Bognø, VP Aker Digital Alliance.

Edmary Altamiranda Maldonado has won the Nordic Woman in Tech Award NWITA, Category Digital Transformation Leader of the Year 2025.

The award was presented in Finland and honors leading women in technology across the Nordics.

Edmary is recognized for her groundbreaking contributions in control systems, digitalization, and subsea technology. She currently works as Controls & Systems Engineering Lead at Aker BP. With over 30 years of experience and a strong commitment to diversity and innovation, she has made a lasting impact both at Aker BP and in the industry.

Earlier this year, she was named one of Norway’s 50 Leading Women in Tech and was a finalist for Petrolady of the Year.

We congratulate Edmary on a well-deserved Nordic victory.