Aker BP’s long‑term oil demand outlook
Data‑driven forecasts for global oil demand over the next decade
Presented by Chief Economist Torbjørn Kjus
Developed by Aker BP’s Markets & Strategic Insights team
Published in February 2026
Video presentation
Watch the full presentation as Chief Economist Torbjørn Kjus explains Aker BP’s view on global oil demand development toward 2035, including our base case, key drivers and scenario range.
Executive summary
Aker BP expects continued global oil demand growth over the coming decade, reaching around 112 million barrels per day by 2035. This outlook reflects a world where population growth, rising incomes and expanding mobility continue to support long‑term consumption across multiple sectors and regions.
Road transport demand is expected to peak toward the end of this decade, yet remains at broadly similar levels in 2035. Petrochemicals and aviation emerge as the strongest contributors to future growth.
Our forecasts
Base case
Our base case sees global oil demand rising from about 105 million barrels per day today to approximately 112 million barrels per day in 2035, an average annual increase of roughly 0.7 million barrels per day.
Key dynamics:
- Road transportation reaches a peak toward 2030 but remains resilient and still higher than today by 2035.
- Petrochemicals show strong growth, driven by continued global demand for materials.
- Aviation demand expands steadily as global travel and economic activity rise.
- Other major sectors remain close to today’s levels.
- Power generation is the one area where oil use declines structurally.
Upside scenario
A world with:
- Stronger economic momentum
- Faster‑than‑expected growth in aviation and petrochemicals
- Slower efficiency gains
- More moderate policy tightening
This scenario results in higher demand growth than the base case.
Downside scenario
Reflecting:
- Accelerated policy action
- Faster EV adoption
- Efficiency improvements
- Weaker macroeconomic conditions
- Potential geopolitical disruptions
This scenario leads to lower demand growth and earlier signs of plateauing.
Sector & regional drivers
Growth sectors
- Petrochemicals – driven by rising global consumption of plastics and chemical products
- Aviation – supported by long‑term increases in travel and economic activity
- Road Transport – peaking but maintaining strong baseline demand
Stable sectors
- Maritime
- Buildings
- Industry (slightly lower but largely stable)
Structural decline
- Power Generation – the main source of reduced oil use globally
Global coverage
Our analysis spans 31 regions and 12 sectors, integrating:
- Macroeconomic developments
- Sector‑specific dynamics
- Price and policy effects
- Refined‑product demand patterns
Modelling supported by demand‑side tools from Rystad Energy. Used with permission.
Why this outlook matters
Understanding long‑term oil demand is essential for assessing market balances, investment decisions and global energy dynamics.
With this publication, Aker BP aims to contribute constructively to the broader dialogue on future energy demand by providing a consistent, transparent and data‑driven view of potential outcomes for the coming decade.
About the team
Markets & strategic insights
Aker BP’s Markets & Strategic Insights team is responsible for developing long‑term outlooks, macro‑market assessments, and scenario analyses. The team works across the organization to support strategy, capital allocation, and commercial decision‑making.
Chief Economist: Torbjørn Kjus
Torbjørn Kjus leads Aker BP’s macro‑energy analysis and long‑term market outlooks. His expertise in oil market fundamentals and forecasting forms the foundation of the insights presented in this publication.