Consensus estimates

Aker BP regularly compiles a consensus of the estimates provided by sell-side analysts.

Aker BP consensus estimatesUnitQ2-24 202420252026
Volumemboepd433433413391
– of which liquidsmboepd372373355336
– of which natural gasmboepd61605756
Liquids priceUSD/boe85838076
Gas priceUSD/boe62566258
Total incomeUSDm3,21212,54811,63910,563
EBITDAUSDm2,84011,12810,2029,172
Operating profit (EBIT)USDm2,2508,7627,8466,876
Profit/loss before taxesUSDm2,2188,6017,6966,690
Net profit/lossUSDm5032,1291,9111,575
Earnings per shareUSD0.803.383.032.50
Dividend per shareUSD0.602.402.532.67
Cash flow operationsUSDm9116,0226,2855,728
Cash flow investmentsUSDm(1,338)(5,307)(5,501)(5,153)
Updated 13 May 2024. Average of estimates.
Participants: ABG Sundal Collier, Arctic Securities, Berenberg, BofA Securities, Carnegie, Danske Bank, DnB Markets, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Nordea Markets, Pareto Securities, Fearnley Securities, RBC Capital Markets, SEB, Bernstein, SpareBank1 Markets, Stifel and  Kepler Cheuvreux.

Guidance

Aker BP regularly provides guidance with respect to certain key financial parameters.

2024 guidanceUnitGuidance
Production volumemboepd410-440
Production cost per barrelUSD/boe~7
Capital spend (capex)USD billion~5
Exploration spend (expex)USD billion~0.5
Abandonment spend (abex)USD billion~0.25

Trading update

After the end of each quarter, Aker BP issues a trading update with production and sales numbers for the quarter. The numbers are summarised in the following table.

Volume (mboepd)Q1-23Q2-23Q3-23Q4-23 Q1-24
Net production452.7480.7449.8444.3448.0
Overlift/(underlift)(3.1)(3.3)0.322.6(19.0)
Net sold volume449.6477.4450.0466.9428.9
– of which liquids384.1408.9389.5408.4364.5
– of which natural gas65.568.560.558.564.4
.
Realised prices (USD/boe)Q1-23Q2-23Q3-23Q4-23Q1-24
Liquids78.476.887.683.682.7
Natural gas98.763.960.573.951.4

Capital allocation priorities

Maintaining a robust balance sheet, with financial flexibility and investment grade credit rating, is the number one financial priority for Aker BP. This ensures that we can fund our investments in high return projects with low break-evens and maximise long-term value creation for our shareholders. This value creation will over time be returned to shareholders through dividends.

Hedging

Aker BP’s hedging policy is designed to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in commodity prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates.

Commodity prices: To protect its cash flow against significant negative price movements, Aker BP uses put options on the Brent oil price. The company’s policy permits hedging up to 100 percent of anticipated oil production for the next 12 months, up to 75 percent for the subsequent six months, and up to 50 percent for the period between 18 to 24 months in the future.

Aker BP reports its commodity hedging exposure each quarter. Please see the latest quarterly report for updated information.

Interest rates: While Aker BP presently has minimal exposure to fluctuations in interest rates, the company generally manages such exposure by utilising interest rate derivatives.

Foreign exchange: Aker BP employs derivatives to mitigate the company’s exposure to currency risks, mainly costs in NOK, EUR, and GBP.

Tax

Please find below a few attachments that might be useful. Aker BP’s tax strategy describes the company’s responsible tax principles. The Tax Manual and the simplified Tax Model provide analytical information regarding the tax calculation for the company.

Aker BP Tax Strategy pdf
Aker BP Tax Manual 2023 pdf
Tax model (simplified) xlsx

Description of the Norwegian petroleum tax system

The taxation of petroleum resources on the Norwegian continental shelf is governed by the Petroleum Taxation Act. Unless otherwise specified in this special act, general Norwegian tax legislation applies to Aker BP’s activities.

From the fiscal year 2022, a cash flow tax was introduced in the special petroleum tax (SPT). This means that immediate deductions are granted for offshore investments in the SPT. To ensure the neutrality of the SPT, deduction is granted for a calculated corporate tax (CT) in the special tax basis. The overall tax rate was maintained at 78 percent.

In broad terms, the calculation of petroleum tax is as follows:

Corporate tax
Sales revenue (norm price for oil)
– Operating expenses (including exploration and abandonment costs)
– Depreciation (on a straight-line basis over 6 years)
– Interest deduction
– (Loss carried forward)
= Basis for corporate tax (22 percent)
Special petroleum tax
Sales revenue (norm price for oil)
– Operating expenses (including exploration and abandonment costs)
– Investment costs (100 percent in the year of investment)
– Uplift (12.4 percent of investment costs covered by temporary tax rules)
– Calculated corporate tax
= Basis for special petroleum tax (71.8 percent)

Special rules of the Petroleum Tax Act

Norm prices

  • The act provides a legal basis to determine norm prices as a replacement for the actual sales income in the tax assessment. The norm price is set by the Petroleum Price Board and is supposed to correspond to the price the petroleum would have obtained, had it been sold between unrelated parties.

Depreciation

  • The most important fixed assets in offshore activities, namely pipelines and production installations, can be deducted in their entirety in the taxation basis for special tax for the income year in which the expenses occurred. In the basis for the general income, these fixed assets can be depreciated on a straight-line basis over a period of six years. Other fixed assets are depreciated according to the general rules of the Taxation Act, both with regards to the taxation basis for the SPT and the basis for the CT.

Financial items

  • There are rules that limit the right to make tax deductions for financial items related to offshore activities: Interest payments and currency items related to interest-bearing debts are deductible, but this is limited to a share corresponding to 50 percent of the ratio between depreciated offshore assets in the taxation basis for the SPT as at 31 December and the average interest-bearing debt. The average interest-bearing debt is calculated throughout the year and is subject to the use of average exchange rates in the case of a foreign currency debt. As a result of the introduction of the cash flow tax from 2022, the share of financial items allocated to offshore activities will be very small because the tax value of offshore assets in the SPT basis amounts to approximately zero. Financial items that are not allocated to offshore activities, are subject to a deduction in CT.

Transfer of ownership

  • To avoid that tax rules act as incentive for or against restructuring, shares in production licences cannot be transferred without the Ministry of Finance consenting to the tax effects of the transaction. This is regulated under section 10 of the Petroleum Taxation Act.

Deficit and payment schemes

  • Companies that are not in a tax position will receive payment of the tax value of their SPT deficit in the year following the income year. Ordinary CT deficit is carried forward without interest in the same way that applies to other industries onshore.

Tax instalments

  • The ongoing tax payments (advance tax) are called tax instalments. The assessment of the tax instalments is based on information provided by the company regarding expected income for the fiscal year. There are six instalments through the year – respectively 1 August, 1 October, and 1 December in the fiscal year, and 1 February, 1 April, and 1 June in the following year. There is an option to make payments larger than the assessed amounts with the second and fifth instalments. When the final tax assessment is completed, the residual tax must be paid (and overpaid tax refunded) within three weeks.

Advance rulings

  • The companies can request a binding advance ruling from the Oil Taxation Office regarding the fiscal consequences for a specific imminent disposition.
More info

Withholding tax on dividends

Non-Norwegian shareholders are liable to tax in Norway for dividends received from Norwegian companies. If the company does not know the identity and tax status of the foreign shareholder, the company is legally obliged to deduct 25 percent withholding tax on dividends.

The company may however apply a reduced withholding tax rate in accordance with a double taxation treaty or a 0 percent tax rate pursuant to the exemption method in section 2-38 of the Norwegian Tax Act, if the shareholder has provided documentation that proves they’re entitled to a reduced withholding tax rate.

For more information, please visit the following webpage:

Dividends from Norwegian companies to foreign shareholders (skatteetaten.no)

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Assumptions

  • 1,000 standard cubic metres (SCM) natural gas = 6.2898 barrels oil equivalent (boe)
  • 1 SCM = 35.315 standard cubic feet (scf)
  • 1 SCM = 40 megajoule (MJ)
  • 1 SCM = 37,913 BTU
  • 1 MMBTU = 1,000,000 BTU
  • 1 megawatt-hour (MWh) = 3.6 MJ

Based on the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s conversion factors. Other conversion standards exist.

Analysts covering Aker BP

Company Analyst Phone
ABG Sundal Collier +47 22 01 61 87
Arctic Securities +47 22 93 72 12
Barclays +44 20 3134 6669
Berenberg +44 20 3465 2684
Bernstein +44 20 7762 5902
BofA Securities +44 207 996 7109
Carnegie +47 22 00 93 56
Citi +44-20-7986-5704
Danske Bank +47 854 07 784
DNB Markets +47 24 16 92 97
Fearnley Securities +47 2293 6472
Goldman Sachs +39 02 8022-2242
Jefferies +44 20 7029 8691
J.P. Morgan +44 20 3493 8464
Kepler Cheuvreux +47 2313 9076
Morgan Stanley +44 20 7425 3016
Nordea Markets +47 24 01 50 80
Norne Securities +370 64 536 771
ODDO BHF +33 (0)1 44 94 56 05
Pareto Securities +47 24 13 21 86
RBC Europe +44 207 429 8530
SEB Enskilda +47 21 00 85 02
SpareBank 1 Markets +47 24 13 36 06
Stifel +44 20 7710 7623

Disclaimer

This website includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.

These statements and this website are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA’s lines of business. 

These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as ”expects”, ”believes”, ”estimates” or similar expressions.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA’s  businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time on the website.

Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the website are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out on this website.

Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the website, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.​